New England at NY Jets--Unless you’ve been in a media-free vacuum, you’ve heard all about the Tom Brady knee injury and his replacement, unheralded Matt Cassel. Many people bring up the similarity between Cassel’s situation and Brady’s back when he took over for an injured Drew Bledsoe, but it reminds me more of another time. Back when Dan Marino’s Achilles tendon snapped in 1993, the Dolphins were coming off an AFC title game loss and a strong 3-1 start, looking very much like a Super Bowl team. Mitchell was a little-used young backup who stepped in for the legend, and expectations were grim. His first pass went for a pick 6 the other way, but he settled down and carried the shell-shocked Dolphins to a win in Cleveland over Bill Belichick’s Browns. Mitchell wasn’t Marino, but he wasn’t as bad as most people thought he would be. The Dolphins won 5 of their next 6 and would have made the playoffs if their defense didn’t give up 146 points in the last 4 games. These Patriots will be fine, so long as their defense doesn’t collapse like those Dolphins, which isn’t likely but also isn’t far-fetched. The Jets struggled to beat the Dolphins, who don’t have one WR who would ever see the field for the Pats and their secondary is even worse. Expect the Patriots to make a big statement that they are more than one man and they are still the cream of the AFC East crop.
New England 27, New York Jets 10.
Philadelphia at Dallas--Statement game alert! With all apologies to the Giants, the winner of this battle will shoot to the top of the NFC pecking order and take control of the NFC East. There are loads of intriguing matchups in this one, but I think it will come down to which QB can make more plays when the actual play breaks down. Normally the Cowboys get that nod thanks to Jason Witten (but not TO, who loves to drop balls when wide open on broken plays), but I was genuinely impressed with rookie Desean Jackson in Philly’s yawner over the Rams. For a guy I slammed at every opportunity heading into the draft, Jackson showed me a heretofore unknown maturity and concentration that brought out the best in his dynamic speed and agility. The Browns failed to capitalize on some coverage lapses in the Dallas secondary, opportunities I think the Eagles will seize.
Philadelphia 29, Dallas 27.Indianapolis at Minnesota--One of the things that really grinds my gears is when a team has a player with non-traditional skill sets and tries to bang him into a traditional role. Vikings coach Brad Childress is doing just that with QB Tarvaris Jackson, and it’s why the Vikings are likely to fall to 0-2. Jackson excels at being on the move, rolling out, coming off bootlegs and using the threat of his legs to get receivers open behind the LBs, who are kept honest by the run potential. But Childress seems hellbent on turning Jackson into Drew Bledsoe, standing in the pocket and making quick reads. When Jackson got outside and on the move, he looked very good against the Packers, who should have been called for at least 4 more defensive holding penalties by my count. In the pocket and operating under the constraints of the traditional West Coast principles, Jackson is perhaps the worst QB this side of Charlie Frye. Expect a bug rebound week from Peyton Manning and his receivers, who were all out of sorts against Chicago.
Colts 27, Vikings 20.Pittsburgh at Cleveland--No team played a more dominant overall game against an allegedly worthy opponent (which leaves out Philly beating up the Rams) than Pittsburgh, who absolutely mauled the Texans in Week One. No allegedly good team laid a bigger egg than the Browns, who looked very much like the team we all predicted to finish 6-10 or worse in 2007. Pair that with the knowledge of how mercilessly the Steelers have routinely pounded the Browns over the last decade, and this really doesn’t look like much of a contest. But the Browns laid a similar egg in their opener last year (albeit against these Steelers) and rebounded quite nicely, so there is hope at the end of W. 3rd Street. For the Browns to have any shot, the absent pass rush has to pressure Ben Roethlisberger from more than one spot, and the corners have to remain alert when Big Ben is on the move. Stranger things have happened (see: the success of Hinder, now apparently channeling Jackyl), but the forecast isn’t real sunny for Browns fans.
Pittsburgh continues their mastery over Cleveland 34-24.
San Diego at Denver--I have a strong inkling that this is one of the matchups where you can ignore both teams’ openers. The Broncos are in for a rude awakening if they think the Chargers are going to come out dead like the Raiders did Monday night. For all that the Broncos did well, they still looked vulnerable to patient RBs and slip routes to the TE. San Diego has future Hall of Famers at both spots, and the Bolts are fired up to avoid an 0-2 start.
Chargers 33-19.
Chicago at Carolina--Two teams that knocked off playoff teams on the road in Week One meet in Carolina, where the Panthers have not played well in recent times. The Bears defense got back to 2006 form, functioning as a unit instead of a lot of talented individuals wearing the same uniform. That forces turnovers, and that is how the Bears have to win games. I believe they are helped by being on the road, where they don’t have to worry about the fans turning on them for every little mistake. The Panthers reshuffled OL looked real strong against the Chargers, and Jake Delhomme is back riding high in the saddle. Carolina looked very in synch, and I’m not yet sold on the Bears ability to sustain what we saw against Indy.
Panthers 20, Bears 13.
Buffalo at Jacksonville: Buffalo won their opener in a driving rainstorm thanks to superlative special teams and the inability of Seattle to throw the ball thanks to bad WR play and shaky pass protection. The Jaguars are minus both starting guards and center Brad Meester on the OL, and top reserve lineman Richard Collier is also gone. Jacksonville couldn’t protect David Garrard against the Titans, though he wouldn’t have found many open receivers even with great protection. When I told you this offseason that the Jaguars were on the way down, few wanted to believe me. This game should cement their descent into non-contender status.
Buffalo 26, Jacksonville 6.
New Orleans at Washington--Washington has to protect Jason Campbell better if the Skins are to have any chance. That’s a real tall order facing the Saints’ resurgent pass rush, as signing Bobby McCray appears to be a brilliant move to bolster the DE position. The Saints will miss Marques Colston, but they have enough WR depth to cover him. It helps that both Fred Smoot and Shawn Springs are walking wounded, putting extra pressure on the Washington front four. The road team has won the last 5 games in this series. The Saints make it 6 behind a big day from Jeremy Shockey.
New Orleans 32, Washington 13.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay--The Bucs come off a tough divisional loss and must face the surprising Falcons sans QB Jeff Garcia. I don’t want to diminish all that Atlanta did well in Week One, but the Detroit defense was consistently terrible. The Bucs run the exact same defense, so maintaining gap integrity and having the safeties stay at home is integral to stopping the Falcons. The biggest question coming into the season for Atlanta was the secondary, but Jon Abraham and the pass rush took care of that deficiency quite nicely. If they can do the same to Brian Griese, who doesn’t have anyone to throw to except Joey Galloway, the Falcons should be able to hang tough and maybe steal a win. “Maybes” don’t play well in Vegas or on BetUS.com.
Tampa Bay 20, Atlanta 17. Green Bay at Detroit--Nice confidence-boosting debut for Aaron Rodgers, though it was the exceptional play of their lines that allowed the Packers to beat the Vikings. The Lions, well, they’re still the same old Lions. This game might very well decide Rod Marinelli’s future as Lions coach, because if the defensive breakdowns and sideline brouhahas don’t go away quickly, it shows he’s nothing more than a really great guy who isn’t cut out to be a head coach. Expect a better effort from the Motor City Kitties, but it are games like these that good teams don’t blow. This Green Bay squad is a good team.
Packers 30, Lions 21.San Francisco at Seattle--Two teams that did not show much in Week 1 face off and try to catch up with the Cardinals in the pathetic NFC West. Seattle struggled with the speed of the Buffalo defense, and the one thing the Niners have in abundance is defensive speed. The Seahawks are typically a different animal at home, and their defense needs to grow some teeth to slow down Frank Gore. But without their top 3 wideouts, they might have to gum the 49ers with the RB-by-committee, not an easy task against Patrick Willis & Co. My faith in the 12th man is the only reason Seattle is the pick.
Seahawks 17-13.
Tennessee at Cincinnati--So the Bengals plan is allegedly to crank up the high-octane passing game and outscore their opponents? They went 3 and out on their first 6 drives against the Ravens, and Carson Palmer threw for under 100 yards in a game where their only TD was a fumble return. Oh yeah, they also allowed a lumbering rookie QB to run for a 38-yard TD. To be fair, the Ravens D was in fine form, but the Titans D is coming off a mighty impressive performance against the Jaguars. This is exactly the vintage Bengals I expected--underachieve through some almost unbelievably poor losses until mid-November, then start playing for contracts on other teams to get the hell out of the miserable excuse of a franchise that the Brown family runs. On the other side, no Vince Young means the Titans can actually throw the ball to complement their running game. Expect a big fantasy week from rookie RB Chris Johnson in a
33-16 Titans victory.
Oakland at Kansas City--Two things to take from the Chiefs near-upset of the Patriots in Week One. First is that they are going to bring the heat defensively and they have the physicality and speed to make it work. Second is that they have to bring that heat because they can’t cover anyone. Oakland absolutely stunk in their opener, and Deangelo Hall is well on his way to killing Lane Kiffin’s coaching career. The Raiders will probably look better, but until they get any sort of WR play and Jamarcus Russell gets more confident (those are not mutually specific) they aren’t going to escape the bottom 5 of any power rankings.
KC over Oakland 24-16.
NY Giants at St. Louis--Rams fans have to be wondering which deity they ticked off. After their nightmare 2007, they open by getting annihilated by the Eagles and then draw the Super Bowl champs. Good Apollo will smile on you sometime. Just not this week.
Giants 36-17.
Miami at Arizona--Game effort by the Dolphins in Tony Sparano’s coaching debut last week, but once the Jets remembered that Chad Pennington can’t zip the ball, the Miami offense did nothing. Arizona plays the same defense, with just as many playmakers. Losing rookie RG Donald Thomas is a big blow for the Dolphins. You fantasy geeks with individual defensive players will want to pick Darnell Dockett this week.
Cards roll 30-13.
Baltimore at Houston.--postponed with no makeup date announced. Great decision by the NFL, but football-wise this couldn’t be worse for the Ravens, who were trying to build on a positive opener. Be sure to catch my man Reynolds Wolf on CNN for all your latest Ike coverage.
